I said on 1 June that 10K was the top. Few hours later (I was shorting it), Bitcoin topped at $10,400 and the next day on 2 June it wicked below $9300 and closed above $9500. ”Hurrdurr, you’re just guessing”
I don’t write articles after the facts. I forecast major swings on this blog. weeks, months before they happen.
- The new S17 miners have lowered the break-even price significantly. Yes, supply issuance has been halved but energy-consumption has been significantly reduced.
Trying to figure out the fairest price for bitcoin. It’s around 6xxx.
- realised-cap for BTC is $5783 by the time of this writing. The 4-year cyclical price for BTC is 200 MA weekly, which is around $6148, this number is dynamic… Moving averages tend to climb higher when price is trading in a range.
- Realised cap = The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins. (source willy-woo)
- The average 4-year moving average for BTC is around $6148. 200 SimpleMovingAverage – 200 weeks = 3.84 years the equivalent of 1 halving-cycle. The 200 MA is the dynamic mean of the last 200 weeks – approx 4 years. This support level has never been broken, price has wicked below the 200 MA weekly during fake-outs but price has never closed below 200 MA weekly with conviction.
- The PointOfControl for the last 4 years is around $6600.
My target is still $6xxx
- Momentum isn’t a constant, it’s a variable, demand is like high and low-tide, orderbook-liquidity is like the ocean. We saw a large-influx of retail normies, who were buying in anticipation before the halving event. The normies that anticipicated $12000 have already bought… let me repeat, they have already bought. Ask yourself this question.
- The price-action you see right now, it’s just bait and flush….. lure normies into short positions, Market-makers that engineer liquidity for big-players , tend to counter-trade against the primary trend.
- This is done by flushing/hunting stops. As a result ,this type of tactic cause a cascade of market-stops and liquidations that push liquidity upwards towards price-levels where (semi) professional traders have placed their iceberg/hidden orders.
The trend shows clear bearish bias, when it’s so obvious. It’s time to counter-trade against the crowd.
- The price-action reveals all, higher-lows on declining momentum + declining on-balance-volume + linear trend line break. I pray that market sentiment remains bullish, so we can go down without a pump to rekt shorts. If market-sentiment switches to bearish, price will likely pump to take out shorts before bitcoin plummets.
Skewness and kurtosis. If we look at the distribution of Bitcoin from the last 4 years, it’s skewed downwards. Volume ”traded at price” is developing downwards, forming a b-profile. ”Value” is trading lower.
Retail liquidity is a tiny-drop in this vast ocean of liquidity. Big financial groups move the bitcoin markets. The problem for big-position traders is slippage. To solve the liquidity/slippage problem, institutions make use of stophunts and high-demand events to get their orders filled with minimal slippage.
When price is trading sideways, passive liquidity is collected in the form of market-stops. This is called a liquidity pool. Bitcoin is now forming a liquidity pool and the halving just happened to be a high-demand event. It’s just a Pump and Dump racket.
Bulls have a short memory, they forgot that 90% of the liquidations in 2019 came from ”long positions”
Alot of retail-investors that rely on income from work are being laid-off temporarily or permanently. Don’t expect a massive inflow of fiat into the bitcoin-market. Although Bitcoin is marketed as ”money” few online merchants actually accept it as legal tender. It’s practically useless as a payment-vehicle.