Categories
Altcoins trading

BNB = bearish – buy opportunity

BNB-USDT

Sunday 14 June 2020 4:52 PM . Price-action for BNB-USDT is bearish. This is buy opportunity.

Common setup : Reserve 1-2% of your total capital for BNB to save on trading-fees. Reserve 4-5% of your total capital for hedging on a derative exchange. The rest of your capital can be used to trade the spot market.

Set buy-ladders (scaled orders, dollar-cost-average between) $14 – $9

Categories
trading

Top 100 Ethereum holders selling off.

  • Price is rising (green-line)
  • The amount Ethereum held in the top 100 wallets has been steadily declining. (red line)
  • The amount of Ethereum moved from Top-Wallets to exchanges aligns with the price. As price increases, amount of Ethereum moved to exchanges increases. (purple line)
  • Vertical drop in Top 100 Ethereum holders (grey-line) Large percentage of the whales who previous held ETH have sold off.

You’ve been warned.

Categories
Math trading

Why Technical Analysis isn’t enough.

I only trade Bitcoin and Bitcoin has many variables. I assume you’re experienced with the many variables. If you’re just starting this article isn’t for you.

Technical analysis generally tells me what other traders are thinking. For me just TechnicalAnalysis isn’t enough for me to confidently pull the trigger. I do factor in various variables. Prior weekly-monthly-close, open-interest and funding rates, CME gaps, network-difficulty, orderbook-depth etc, volume profile -POC, LVN, HVN’s. All these variables do increase you probability. I don’t know what is going to happen with 100% certainty. With 70% + probability and excellent risk-management that factor in R-multiple. You can be profitable long-term.

I will explain in the next post, why trading Altcoins is pretty much gambling.

There are other forces in the markets that make Technical Analysis often doesn’t account for… For example, Network difficulty will affect the profitability rate for bitcoin miners. If the hashrate is high and network difficulty increases.. a percentage of the network will mine at a loss. When miners go out of business, it can generally results in 10-50% drops. (Miners have to sell their newly mined Bitcoin for Fiat to cover the mining-expenses.) The market must absorb 27000 newly mined bitcoins per month or price will tank and break support. We’ve seen 52 difficulty drops in difficulty since 2009 and I am expecting one soon. Price has a major effect on where miners exits. This is all I am willing to share.

Charting

[PAID] Tradingview Pro (contains referral) – This is your bread and butter for charting. $155 to $600 a year. Only useful for telling you majority of the traders are thinking.

Network

[FREE] https://www.blockchain.com/charts/difficulty Network Difficulty (No referral link)

[FREE]https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,4d Mempool (No referral link)

[FREE] https://terminal.bytetree.com/bitcoin Onchain Analytics (No referral link)

Orderbook Depth

Tools for measuring the combined (aggregated orderbook depth) from all the spot-exchanges. Meaning combined depth of the market. This data should be measured in real-time near key support and resistance levels. Depth of market indicates pending price-levels with large amount of buyers-sellers. This data is important for large players, their key-concern is slippage. Orderbook-depth should be combined with orderflow and volume-deltas. A candle may print green but you can’t see the delta or difference between buyer and selling power. What you want to look for is how much selling was absorbed by buyers at key-support-key-resistance levels. If you see supply-absorption, a reversal is imminent.

[FREE] https://vcdepth.io/coins/bitcoin-btc Market Depth Ratio is very limited. (No referral link)

vcdepth

[PAID]https://www.trdr.io $200 a year for the pro version. This is my favorite tool so far. (No referral link)

Thanks, to whalepool for proving what I had suspected for a long-time. Volume Validation.

Take my advice, disable all exchanges and only leave kraken bitstamp bitfinex, gemini visible. Filter out all the exchanges that execute fake orders.

If you’re gonna switch to Bitfinex, please be so kind to my referral thanks.

https://www.bitfinex.com/?refcode=wj0ltT7Gh

Liquidity analysis tools.

Software that allows you to see inside the candle. Useful for seeing strength at key support/resistance levels. Compare the Volume Delta’s to measure the strength of a bearish or bullish candle.



Statistics

[FREE] www.skew.com (No referral link)

Open interest

https://www.coinmarketman.com/market-scanner

(No referral link)

Categories
bitcoin trading

Finding Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms from a Macro Perspective.

Finding market-cycle rough estimates for Bitcoin bottoms and tops from a macro-perspective is relatively easy if you know where to find/combine the tools for measuring bitcoin micro-economics (Supply and demand).

There are variables like miners-revenue, difficulty adjustments, supply halvings, realized cap vs marketcap.….these variables make valuation of bitcoins complicated. At some point prices will always revert to the mean, the law of large numbers and law of demand is programmatically build in the bitcoin network.
2 data-analyst from 2 well-known hedgefunds and 1 OG-investor have developed 3 different public indicators that allow you to see long-term macro-tops and macro-bottoms with relative ease. The indicators were specifically designed for the micro-economics of the bitcoin-network and should be used from a macro-perspective.
The knowledge is publicly available, however combining them to form a new thesis is how it can be effectively used for finding high probability tops and bottoms in position trading is a new concept that I accidentally stumbled upon.
When all indicators are combined, we can see the rough estimation of the beginning and ending of cycles. This data allows us to scale in and scale-out our buy and sell orders to get the average price. I’m not bullshitting you.. It’s fairly accurate (from a macroperspective) for bottoms and tops and it does take into consideration average-price proxies like the 200-period Weekly Moving Average. Why the 200 WMA? 200 weeks = roughly 3.8 years .. what happens every 4 years in the bitcoin economy?


This data can be effectively used for position-trading (traders who hold on to a position for months to years) or hodlers who want to take profit from every 6 months.


I will not release this information for free. This information will be monetized by crypto-youtube-cunts and resold by social-media twitter traders, that don’t trade but make money from courses, signals and calls.

The market is zero-sum, for every seller there must be a matching buyer on the other side of the orderbook, for every winner there must be a loser to pay for our wins.

If you’re the type that wants to take profit from every major cycle, then you should invest in the knowledge I have to offer.

The price for the manual will be $2500 in either Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin SV or Bitcoin

You won’t be disappointed, this isn’t some tradingview bullshit indicator. Expect a good estimate in forecasting monthly Bitcoin Market Cycles ending and beginnings.

If you read my blog often, you might figure it out.

greaterfoolzzz@protonmail.com

Categories
trading

Node-based visual scripting and back-testing

Tired of pine-script?

Meet superalgo’s node-based visual scripting and backtesting.

For the dyslectic noobs like myself, this is the long-term solution.

This is not for you, if you’re not familiar with Technical analysis, algo’s are nothing more than just a series of instructions. The purpose of superalgos (at least for me) is to backtest and play around with the different strategies.

If you’re familiar with Unity playmaker or Unreal blueprint or any node-based visual scripting tool, then you know what this is. It’s like mind-mapping with operators, variables and functions.

I have a background/experience working Unreal’s node-based shader editor, my brain is already wired to think with nodes. If you have issues with dyslexia and you still want back-test without worrying about syntax, this is the tool for you.

And no, I don’t get paid to promote this project. Sharing is caring.

Example of a backtest.

https://docs.superalgos.org/

https://docs.superalgos.org/suite-data-mines.html

https://t.me/superalgoscommunity

Categories
trading

Puell Multiple showed that we have bottomed.

Distribution is just auctioning in the literal sense.

Kurtosis is a fancy word for distribution. With volume and market-profiles you can measure kurtosis.

There are 3 different types of distribution profiles. Platykurtic, Mesokurtic, Leptokurtic. Learn about about them here.

Why is this important, kurtosis or probability distribution allows you to see whether price is stuck in a range or ready to break out.

The profile clearly shows mesokurtic distribution. The range is 8xxx-5xxx What matters is that bitcoin is undergoing auctoning process.

During mesokurtic distribution price will NOT breakout, instead it will be rotating between 5xxx-8xxx till buyers and sellers both agree on price they are willing to buy or sell at. Once ”fair value” is found, once the mean is found, range will get narrower and tigher. Like how bollinger bands squeeze and breakout. Expect volatility to decrease and $7000 to be a magnet for price.

Remember, price can only breakout during leptokurtic distribution.

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/Identifying%20Breakout%20Moves.doc

Update

It’s unlikely that Bitcoin will hit $3750 again , unless we see blackswan event like 2016 Halving. Don’t listen to the ”analyst” that claim that bitcoin will hit $1xxx-2xxx. They don’t trade, their main-occuption is to give interviews, get interviews, sell indicators, sell courses.

In 2016 after Halving, bitfinex got hacked and it dumped hard. I can’t predict whether we will see a blackswan or not. Latest news is that Binance, okex, bitmex, bitfinex are getting sued for selling unregistered securities but ”filings” don’t really mean shit and these class-action lawsuits take months or even years to settle.

Puell multiple also shows that we have bottomed. Don’t expect much from this rally, maybe 8xxx max.

Categories
trading

About Greater-fools

Greater-fools Club

Show me the people who you hang out and I will show you your future.

Greater-fools is a reach out for like-minded experienced technical/fundamental traders with a ability to detect scam, lies, deception. If you’ve been in this game for a while, then you know I am not bullshitting, the space is riddled with lies and deception and scams

I want to expand this community to 40 people, a community for sharing bullshit-free information. Fundamentals matter, T.A is just part of the equation.

The goal of this private community is share knowledge within our small private community and hopefully thrive in the upcoming recession. I am not trying to build a consumer-follower type of community and then sell products.

I will share some of the information publicly from time to time. I don’t do social-media… I’m not trying to promote my site. I am not selling anything. The goal is information-sharing because we live in interesting times. Corona gave us the opportunity of a lifetime.

I’ve received news in early February 2020 that certain rogue hedgefunds that PumpAndDumped your erc-20 shitcoins to death are moving capital into HFT Firms. They killed the ICO, IEO market and now are after the Bitcoin Market. One of the implications is that bitcoin could long-term become a efficient market. The theory of a efficient market is that Bitcoin always trade around fair value or the average making it extremely hard to short overvalued prices (ValueAreaHigh) or long at undervalued prices (ValueAreaLow). Incase bitcoin become efficient, we need to find clever ways to diversify and hedge. In efficient markets price will tend to trade closer to the ”average value”.

We are now focussing primarily on BTC-futures, the market is still inefficient and the extreme extensions are profitable.

My Private Group is Full. Exceptions can be made for

  • Preferably Analyst personality types. INTP-INTJ’s, logical rational thinkers.
  • Good traders that trade for a living, not technical-analyst fake-gurus that sell signals or books, courses. Bitmex-ID is required.
  • Background in Statistics, Mathematics, Business Development is preferred and good understanding is the Fundamentals are desire-able.
  • Don’t start drama for the lulz, keep it professional.

There is a waiting list for 3-6-8 months. I want to keep the group small so we can learn about each other.

greaterfoolzzz@protonmail.com

About Me.

Not going to tell you what I have studied, only what I have done before I started trading. I’m a business owner.

In 2012 , I discovered the Palmer Luckey kickstarter – funded the development after receiving the Oculus DK1 I soon realized that this tech could be used for different variety of industries, medical, hospality, weddings. Builded my first prototype VR architectural visualisation app in Unity in 2015, received good reviews. In 2016, I started a company specializing in Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality immersive experiences. It was very very hard in the beginning, nobody understood VR and what we were trying to sell. Through luck, we discovered the Hong Kong Market. We were the first who offered photogrammetry (matterport) for the Hong Kong Real-Estate Market. Majority of our clients came from Macau, Hong Kong region. Due to the Pro-Democracy Protests (2014 Umbrella Revolution) hospatility business has been slowly declining.

I got into crypto as a way to hedge capital, as a business you always need to cut cost or scale. Crypto so far has been great.

Our clients included St-Regis, Starwood Hotels, Meridien, W Hong Kong, Sheraton, DutyFreeShop, Cordis, Sands cotai Central. Weddings, Casino’s.

Categories
trading

My Custom Indicators ?

Some of you wanted to know what kind of indicators I used.

They are just bollinger-bands with a few extra deviations. They allow me to guesstimate implied volatility (theoretical volatility). The standard deviations represent a measure of volatility. But I don’t use them like that. I use standard deviations to see how far price can extend before a pullback to the dynamic mean- depicted as a white moving line. The dynamic mean is the 20-period-moving Average. I use the standard 20-period settings.

Standard deviation 3 of the outer bands should encapsulate the price 97% of the time. There is a 3% chance price will keep rallying this is called band-walking according to a Japanese FX trader called Japanese Forex Trader Kei on youtube.

The standard-deviations allows me see the range incase price is over-extended. This is usefull information because it allows me set a range for laddering in orders. I start laddering when price touches standard deviation 1 and when a few conditions are met.

Scaling in orders.
Bollingerband with 3 standard deviations

How do I know price won’t blast through standard deviation 3-4 and continue upwards? The answer is multiple timeframe analysis. Read about shorting outer-deviations

How to use it? Copy the code below and paste it in pine-editor then add to chart.

study(shorttitle="BB_3deviations", title="IF_bollinger", overlay=true)
source = close
length = input(20, minval=1),

mult = input(2.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50)
mult1 = input(3.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50)
mult2 = input(4.0, minval=0.001, maxval=50)

basis = sma(source, length)

dev = mult * stdev(source, length)
dev1 = mult1 * stdev(source, length)
dev2= mult2 * stdev(source, length)

upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev

upper1 = basis + dev1
lower1 = basis - dev1

upper2 = basis + dev2
lower2 = basis - dev2

plot(basis, title='basis', color=red, linewidth=3, transp=0, trackprice=false)
p1 = plot(upper, title='upperband1', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )
p2 = plot(lower, title='lowerband2', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )
p3 = plot(upper1, title='upperband3', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )
p4 = plot(lower1, title='lowerband4', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )
p5 = plot(upper2, title='upperband5', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )
p6 = plot(lower2, title='lowerband6', color=#39ff14, linewidth=1 )


fill(p1, p2)
fill(p3, p4)
fill(p5, p6)
Categories
trading

Contrarian play for Nov-Dec 2020

Bitcoin SV-fork contrarian play.

Sheeps (80% of cryptoland) love to bash Craig Wright, fake satoshi, drunk aussie. I don’t care whether he is Satoshi or not. I don’t like his bragging either, but this aussie nibba has a point.

We both understand that true value comes from utility/consumption. If you want long-term sustainable growth you need businesses that actually consume your tokens (tokenized services). A regulation friendly bitcoin is absolutely necessary to attract businesses.

So I am willing to take a bet with Bitcoin SV.

Does that mean that I will invest in BSV? No, I will just positon/swing trade it.

Before 2017, crypto was a investment, nowadays not so much. The risk for non-traders far exceed the rewards. I don’t care if your projects has mooned 2500%, unrealized gains are imaginary gains. You can only realize profits by selling and buying. I warned you 21 december 2019 that Bitcoin won’t break 10k, while 90% of the fake-traders were bullish. 14 March all the phony-traders were bearish, Peter Brandt dinosaur-twitter-trader was predicting $1000, which is ridiculous. I was rather bullish.

The correction from the 2017 Bubble isn’t over till at least Christmas 2020. We will hit 8K soon but this will be rejected. What we see is regression downwards, this won’t change until at least end of Nov-December.

Back to BSV. Trading BSV-usdt requires 2 charts, BTC-USD and BSV-USDT the two charts are correlated. No alts can moon without btc leading the way.

BSV-USDT CHART

If we use 20 MA as a proxy for average value then look at this chart. That $450 wick probably penetrated 4-5 deviations from the 20 Weekly moving average (mean). Overvalued by $340 dollars. Average value around that period was $114. The 20 MA is a proxy for dynamic moving average of the last 20 weeks. To sustain $4xx, you need buyers that keep on buying at $4xx per coin.

The Bitcoin-SV fork was one of the best contrarian plays of 2019, don’t tell me you can’t run a train on these fools.

I don’t know where to buy in yet, depends on BTC-USD. Weekly looks like further downside to the outer devations. Since there are no Bitcoin SV deratives, we can’t short it. I will patiently wait for $100-$75

I will keep you updated and notify once I see some more structure.

Categories
trading

Printer goes brrrrr yet Bitcoin isn’t mooning?

2017 Moon

What do you mean? Bitcoin has already mooned, 3 years prior to the current recession. Remember the 2 year bull-rally 2015-2017? That was the moon or should I say bubble…

The 2017 Ultra Moon was

  • extremely over-extended from the cost of production,
  • extremely overvalued for a unfinished product
  • Completely defeats the purpose of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin can be a get-rich quick-scheme in the deratives market but it wasn’t intended to be one. Bitcoin has real utility; it’s purpose was to provide a safe-haven against the Federal Reserve infinite money glitch but unfortunately mass-media, lies, hype, over-speculation and greed have completely altered it’s original purpose/utility.

I am right. You cannot justify a $20,000 price-tag for a anti-inflation currency that can’t fucking scale. I don’t hate Bitcoin but 20k for a coin that can’t scale is total retardation and I took full advantage by shorting it.

If Bitcoin could scale. I wouldn’t be writing this post. If Bitcoin could actually fucking scale and serve as a alternative world wide borderless currency, it’s valuation would be in the millions, period. Hands down – millions!

Why Bitcoin still can’t scale ????? There are allegations that Blockstream is controlled by the Bilderberg Group. Form your own judgement, do your own research. There is no proof only theory so take the theories with a grain of salt.

Just realize this Other Bitcoin alternatives like BitcoinCash and BitcoinSV that can scale, that can serve as currency are severely attacked by mainstream crypto-outlets and for what?

Trading vehicle

Take my advice, until Bitcoin can scale, treat bitcoin as a trading vehicle do not rely on hope and memes like stock to flow.

Until bitcoin fullfills it’s prophecy as anti-inflationary hedge against FIAT., bitcoin will continue to be used as a PumpAndDump vehicle by institutional traders.

2020 Consolidation near 200 WMA

Zoom-out, switch to the weekly and look at the bigger-picture, we’re still correcting from that 2 year long bull-cycle. This drop was imminent, corona-panic gave it some juice. The same hidden forces that bought Bitcoin in 2015 under $100-$300 are the same hidden forces. (metastable, horowitz, dgd)

  • that sold their bitcoin at $18,000-$20,000
  • funded and own few of the mainstream crypto media outlets that spew the same garbage.
  • Probably masterminded the viral stock2flow meme.

My prediction is sideways between 5xxx and 8xxx throughout 2020, with a few shakeouts in between but we won’t close below the 200 Weekly MA. This is the re-accumulation phase.

Continued here.

https://greater-fools.com/2020/03/20/beware-of-the-media-in-the-months-to-come/

Previous forecast came true.

https://greater-fools.com/2020/03/14/dont-panic-pain-is-weakness-leaving-the-cryptospace/