Categories
Altcoins

Render Token ? Sell

Render Token is likely get listed on Coinbase. Should you invest in this? Trading and running a train on noobs is fine but position-trading, long-term investing will get you rekt and this is coming from a person who knows a thing or two about rendering, visual FX, game-technology, leveldesign game-asset-creation, economics, trading, and art but keep in mind… Writing isn’t my thing. Never had to ”write” in my previous jobs.

Utility Price vs Value.

RNDR is a token that represents the cost of a service. (utility token) The goal of RNDR is to save cost on rendering. If it cost $5 to render out a 3 minute animation – 60 FPS – 4k. I expect RNDR to render the same animation for less than $5, otherwise you’re just wasting your time and money. The goal of RNDR token is to save on electricity-cost and time.

Demand for RNDR will come from uninformed retail ”investors” greater-fools…. hurdurr coonbase moon!

Demand should come from small-indie studios, archviz studios, motion-picture studios, etc etc… this is not going to happen when you have dumb money propping up the prices.

RNDR will become too expensive for any genuine usage-case. Longterm investing or position trading utility tokens is generally a recipe for financial suicide. Your financial demise is absolutely guaranteed by the Law Of Diminishing Marginal Utility

If you want sustainable growth you need businesses that actually consume the tokenized services and build a genuine foundation for growth.

I wouldn’t bet a single penny on outdated distributed GPU rendering tech. Because precomputation (rendering) is becoming outdated.

Let’s get into the tech and why rendering – (precomputation) is becoming redundant in the visual FX for TV and Movies. It’s basicly a battle between ”realtime” vs ”Precomputation” and Real-time-Graphics powered by Game-Engine Technology is already the new standard for architectural visualization, virtual stages, cinematics.

Unreal 5 – (techical aimed at tech-artists)

For those who haven’t been living under a rock. Meet Unreal 5 and Nanite virtualized geometry. Read the line that states : No need to bake details to normal maps. (baking = renderbaking as in Precomputation) Massive Time-Saver compared to tradional workflows, cost of production and time reduced by at least 50%. Yes at least 50%. No low-poly-renderable meshes, no high-detail-source meshes, no LOD’s, no baking, no normal-tangency issues, no seam issues.

Here comes the kicker that will make precomputation for visual FX obsolete in the near future. Unreal 5 is making headline news with Fully Dynamic Global Illumination, what you see is what you get with zero loss in quality, no precalculation necessary, everything is lit in real-time. In previous engines, lights and shadows had to be pre-calculated and captured on texture called a lightmap. Without getting into the technicals… this process was very tedious and time-consuming and required many iterations to get it right.


”Lumen erases the need to wait for lightmap bakes to finished and to author light map UV’s” Ask any level-designer about the horrors of light-baking, lightmap UV seams, Lightmap iteration. It’s a thing of the past. Load in the meshes in the engine, setup the parameters , set up the lights, tweak the settings, done.


This ground breaking technology will make ”pre-computation” aka rendering obsolete for TV-shows, Movies. Watch the 2019 siggraph presentation and tell me that I am wrong

95% of the Utility tokens will fail.

Most of the people in crypto don’t really know what they are investing in. For example, they don’t know that Bitcoin, Monero, LiteCoin = money and they are trying to compare it with for example a Remittance Token like XRP. Ethereum is a blockchain as a service token, not money. 3 different projects with 3 different objectives. Anyway enough writing. Stay away from Crypto if you don’t understand the technology.

If you want to invest in relatively easy to understand utility tokens, look for decentralized storage. The demand for decentralized storage will grow exponentially as data (scale, size) is exponentially increasing. Don’t listen to me, listen to Michael Burry from the ”Big-short” find out what he has to say on ”storage” Hint : Look for censorship-resistant, permanent, immutable, fully distributed file storage projects. Here is a another hint. ”Blockweave”

Categories
Altcoins scam

AltCoins Pump and Dump season is here

Alt-coin season? Yes, it seems like it, just don’t forget to take profit.

This is pretty common-knowledge but for these nibbas, who are new to crypto read this.

Bitcoin is range-bound, money will flow into alts. But make no mistake, the VC’s that have backed these Alts will take profit.

  • VC’s fund projects with potential, in return they receive tokens, equity or both usually with massive discount (whole-sale-prices)
  • Pump the prices to (retail-prices)
  • Pay for air-time on popular crypto-media-outlets, pay popular crypto-influencers to shill a project.
  • Take profit in the distribution area.

Forgot to mention. It’s Ba’al season.

Categories
Altcoins

Crypto Sectors

Crypto is a general term for the different sectors within the crypto-economy. Projects marked in yellow are emerging sectors with deep VC funding, would love to know whether these VC’s received tokens or equity. If anyone knows : greaterfoolzzz@protonmail.com

  • Money : Bitcoin
  • Privacy + Money : Monero
  • Ad-reward : Basic-Attention-token
  • Remittance : Stellar and Ripple
  • StableCoins : USDT , BUSD, Paxos, Gemini Dollar, USD coin
  • IOT internet of things : IOTA, IoTex, IOT-chain,
  • Lending : Salt, Akro, Cred, Populous, EthLend
  • Permanent Decentralized Storage : Arweave
  • Decentralized computing platforms : Dfinity
  • Decentralized Healthcare : Solve.care , lympo, CureCoin.
  • Decentralized Artificial Intelligence : Singularity, Fetch.AI
  • Decentralized Social Media : Kin, Po.et, U network
  • Decentralized Energy Platforms : PowerLedger, Wepower.
  • Blockchain as a service ”BAAS” : Ethereum, EOS, Nervos, HarmonyOne
Categories
Altcoins trading

BNB = bearish – buy opportunity

BNB-USDT

Sunday 14 June 2020 4:52 PM . Price-action for BNB-USDT is bearish. This is buy opportunity.

Common setup : Reserve 1-2% of your total capital for BNB to save on trading-fees. Reserve 4-5% of your total capital for hedging on a derative exchange. The rest of your capital can be used to trade the spot market.

Set buy-ladders (scaled orders, dollar-cost-average between) $14 – $9

Categories
Altcoins

Trading Altcoins on short-timeframes = Gambling

A word to the wise. Alt-coins are a headache to manage and trade, few social-media ”analyst” that don’t trade claim will this and that… Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, show backtests with the pairs and timeframe, show historical Profit-N-Loss, show a livestream on how you take in consideration the many variables. Everyone makes calls, few really back them up.

Fact is 99% of the Altcoins are paired to BTC… this extra variable makes trading altcoins on shorter-timeframes a headache.


Rule #1

In general, no Alt-coin can rise without Bitcoin leading the way… ofcourse there are exceptions. Exceptions can be made for illiquid shitcoins. Or ponzi/pyramid projects with build-in staking mechanism like HEX.


Rule #2

While Bitcoin is appreciating in Dollar-value……

Micro-cap and mid-cap Alt-coin that are paired to Bitcoin- (for example CKB/BTC) will by default depreciate in Satoshis —> if supply is greater than demand.

If demand is neutral and Bitcoin is becoming more expensive in Dollars…. the exchange will automatically adjust the satoshi’s to match the dollar value of the Alt-coin.

You must have buyers, who are willing to exchange their Bitcoin for your Alt-coin.

A great way to skim through the depth of the market is with MDR (market depth ratio). Use large timeframes like 1 Week, 1 Month smooth out, average out spoofing.

Or pay these guys $220 a year for https://www.trdr.io This is what I use to analyze the depth of the market.


Rule #3

The problem with Alt-coins is the BTC-pairing. To trade Alt-coins, you need 2 charts.

BTC/USD + Altcoin/BTC

Why do we need a BTC/USD chart? Because 98% of Altcoins are by default paired to Bitcoin, the other 2% are paired to Ethereum.

Altcoins follow Bitcoin. The correlation is uncanny. And Bitcoin correlates with SPY, the same forces that move the stock market, are the same forces that move Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin tanks 10%… Majority of the Alt-coins that show high correlation with Bitcoin will likely follow that 10% drop in Dollar-valuation.

If you are anticipating a 5%-10% drop in Bitcoin, expect most Alt-coins that correlate with Bitcoin to follow.

I use Bitcoin macro-cycles to forecast tops and bottoms for Alt-Coins. I am very picky when it comes to Alt-coins. Few midcap Alt-coins will by default outperform Bitcoin in bull-cycles and the returns are insane. In every cycle, there are always a few altcoins that outperform Bitcoin by a few hundred percent. Midcap Alt-coins have plenty room for growth. But every cycle is different, previous cycles showed a large influx of ignorant normies, believing that every shitcoin could be the next Bitcoin without understanding the mechanism or fundamentals behind the project. You must understand the consensus mechanism (security model) to understand the cost of production 95% of the coins are worthless.

In general, your exposure to Alt-coins should be no more than 15% of your entire portfolio. My portfolio = 90% BTC – 10% Altcoin.

I have Nervos in my alt-coin Portfolio, which I actively Manage. I actively trade Nervos for accumulation purposes, this allows me to buy at a discounted price. I don’t trade Nervos for BTC or USD. Nervos is a long-term hold.


Unknown Variables

Altcoins have shitload amount of unknown variables and generally should be treated as HighRisk-HighReward. Because of 90% the Alt-Coins are outright scams. The newest scam is supply-dilution during main-net migration.

  • Supply circulation and issuance (how much is unlocked, taken from the vault and dumped on the markets)
  • Supply allocation (Who holds majority of the supply?) Public or the developers/funds?)
  • Supply absorption (quality of the crowd. Who is buying – long-term investors or short-term speculative traders?)
  • Consensus model… For me… proof of work only. The project must proof work. Backed by electricity bills.
  • Most altcoins are NOT genuine cryptocurrencies. Genuine CryptoCurrencies don’t have CEO’s, Offices, CANNOT be shutdown by governments and certainly aren’t registered in off-shore shell companies affiliated with the paradise-papers.
  • Crypto-currencies aren’t services… The term cryptocurrency has been been hijacked by Companies and Startups.. promoting utility tokens as ”currencies. You’re literally buying a service, most altcoins fall under the category Utility, hence why most Altcoins are dubbed Utility tokens. Utility-Tokens represent a cost of a service. What all these scammers won’t tell you is this. A utility token can only serve as ”currency” for paying transactions-fee’s on their network. Outside the network it has little to no value.