Categories
Altcoins

Render Token ? Sell

Render Token is likely get listed on Coinbase. Should you invest in this? Trading and running a train on noobs is fine but position-trading, long-term investing will get you rekt and this is coming from a person who knows a thing or two about rendering, visual FX, game-technology, leveldesign game-asset-creation, economics, trading, and art but keep in mind… Writing isn’t my thing. Never had to ”write” in my previous jobs.

Utility Price vs Value.

RNDR is a token that represents the cost of a service. (utility token) The goal of RNDR is to save cost on rendering. If it cost $5 to render out a 3 minute animation – 60 FPS – 4k. I expect RNDR to render the same animation for less than $5, otherwise you’re just wasting your time and money. The goal of RNDR token is to save on electricity-cost and time.

Demand for RNDR will come from uninformed retail ”investors” greater-fools…. hurdurr coonbase moon!

Demand should come from small-indie studios, archviz studios, motion-picture studios, etc etc… this is not going to happen when you have dumb money propping up the prices.

RNDR will become too expensive for any genuine usage-case. Longterm investing or position trading utility tokens is generally a recipe for financial suicide. Your financial demise is absolutely guaranteed by the Law Of Diminishing Marginal Utility

If you want sustainable growth you need businesses that actually consume the tokenized services and build a genuine foundation for growth.

I wouldn’t bet a single penny on outdated distributed GPU rendering tech. Because precomputation (rendering) is becoming outdated.

Let’s get into the tech and why rendering – (precomputation-prerendering) is becoming redundant in the visual FX for TV and Movies. It’s basicly a battle between ”realtime” vs ”Precomputation” and Real-time-Graphics powered by Game-Engine Technology is already the new standard for architectural visualization, virtual stages, cinematics.

Unreal 5 – (techical aimed at tech-artists)

For those who haven’t been living under a rock. Meet Unreal 5 and Nanite virtualized geometry. Read the line that states : No need to bake details to normal maps. (baking = renderbaking as in Precomputation) Massive Time-Saver compared to tradional workflows, cost of production and time reduced by at least 50%. Yes at least 50%. No low-poly-renderable meshes, no high-detail-source meshes, no LOD’s, no baking, no normal-tangency issues, no seam issues.

Here comes the kicker that will make precomputation for visual FX obsolete in the near future. Unreal 5 is making headline news with Fully Dynamic Global Illumination, what you see is what you get with zero loss in quality, no precalculation necessary, everything is lit in real-time. In previous engines, lights and shadows had to be pre-calculated and captured on texture called a lightmap. Without getting into the technicals… this process was very tedious and time-consuming and required many iterations to get it right.


”Lumen erases the need to wait for lightmap bakes to finished and to author light map UV’s” Ask any level-designer about the horrors of light-baking, lightmap UV seams, Lightmap iteration. It’s a thing of the past. Load in the meshes in the engine, setup the parameters , set up the lights, tweak the settings, done.


This ground breaking technology will make ”pre-computation” aka pre-rendering obsolete for TV-shows, Movies. Watch the 2019 siggraph presentation and tell me that I am wrong. This is where the industry is heading. Realtime powered by GameEngines will slowly take over tradional scanline rendering workflows that require prerendering and Unreal is leading the way.

95% of the Utility tokens will fail.

Most of the people in crypto don’t really know what they are investing in. They think every altcoin will perform similar like Bitcoin pre-2011.

For example, they don’t know that Bitcoin, Monero, LiteCoin is a indices that represents money and they are trying to compare it with for example remittance indices like XRP.

Study the different sectors/indices and understand the different functions, usagecases of a token, find out who is buying and for what reason.

You can’t compare Blockchain-as-a-service (Baas) token like Ethereum, Nervos, harmony-one with remittance token like Stellar or XRP, two different sectors, two completely different usagecases.

Anyway enough writing. Stay away from Crypto if you don’t understand the technology and why certain altcoins will likely hit another 2000% in 2-4 years.

Yes, another 2000% or even 10000%

We’re in a kinda special age. First time, in history can we actually indirectly invest in open-source technology through tokens that stimulate and fund their development. Think of tokens as a ownership of the protocol. If hypothetically speaking, we could timetravel to 1996 and find a way to invest in open-source Linux, usenet, ftp, ssl, http, we would be multi-millionairs by now.

We’re now in stage 1 of the internet era – centralized

If you want to invest in relatively easy to understand utility tokens, look for decentralized storage. The demand for decentralized storage will grow exponentially as data (scale, size) is exponentially increasing. Don’t listen to me, listen to Michael Burry from the ”Big-short” find out what he has to say on ”storage” Hint : Look for censorship-resistant, permanent, immutable, fully distributed data storage projects. Here is a another hint. ”Blockweave” Always do your own research.

Categories
bitcoin

Three Gorges Dam in China and Bitcoin.

If the dam breaks, and 3/4 of China will be flooded. Sell 3/4 of your Bitcoins.

80% of the mining pools are located in China. We will see a difficulty adjustment of Epic proportion. Miners dumping at a Epic Scale.

Categories
bitcoin

Next week Support = 8700-8000

This is the gameplan. I will be closely watching week 2 for a fake-out to $8000. Based on previous closes, you can tell that short-sellers take partial profit at important weekly-monthly closes.

Today it’s 28 June, Tomorrow the Weekly Bar will close and the day after the Monthly Bar will close. 2 Very important dates for forecasting Bitcoin’s price-action.

The image just layouts the gameplan. How I analyze things… I already gave enough hints, not going to cover it. Just read my articles.

https://greater-fools.com/2019/12/21/cryptocurrencies-are-still-the-best-performing-asset-class/

Categories
Uncategorized

IMPORTANT ! Long-term Bearish Price-reasoning

I said on 1 June that 10K was the top. Few hours later (I was shorting it), Bitcoin topped at $10,400 and the next day on 2 June it wicked below $9300 and closed above $9500. ”Hurrdurr, you’re just guessing”

I don’t write articles after the facts. I forecast major swings on this blog. weeks, months before they happen.

  • The new S17 miners have lowered the break-even price significantly. Yes, supply issuance has been halved but energy-consumption has been significantly reduced.

Trying to figure out the fairest price for bitcoin. It’s around 6xxx.

  • realised-cap for BTC is $5783 by the time of this writing. The 4-year cyclical price for BTC is 200 MA weekly, which is around $6148, this number is dynamic… Moving averages tend to climb higher when price is trading in a range.
  • Realised cap = The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins. (source willy-woo)
  • The average 4-year moving average for BTC is around $6148. 200 SimpleMovingAverage – 200 weeks = 3.84 years the equivalent of 1 halving-cycle. The 200 MA is the dynamic mean of the last 200 weeks – approx 4 years. This support level has never been broken, price has wicked below the 200 MA weekly during fake-outs but price has never closed below 200 MA weekly with conviction.
  • The PointOfControl for the last 4 years is around $6600.

My target is still $6xxx


  • Momentum isn’t a constant, it’s a variable, demand is like high and low-tide, orderbook-liquidity is like the ocean. We saw a large-influx of retail normies, who were buying in anticipation before the halving event. The normies that anticipicated $12000 have already bought… let me repeat, they have already bought. Ask yourself this question.

  • The price-action you see right now, it’s just bait and flush….. lure normies into short positions, Market-makers that engineer liquidity for big-players , tend to counter-trade against the primary trend.
  • This is done by flushing/hunting stops. As a result ,this type of tactic cause a cascade of market-stops and liquidations that push liquidity upwards towards price-levels where (semi) professional traders have placed their iceberg/hidden orders.

The trend shows clear bearish bias, when it’s so obvious. It’s time to counter-trade against the crowd.

  • The price-action reveals all, higher-lows on declining momentum + declining on-balance-volume + linear trend line break. I pray that market sentiment remains bullish, so we can go down without a pump to rekt shorts. If market-sentiment switches to bearish, price will likely pump to take out shorts before bitcoin plummets.
As you can see, price is making higher low’s on declining momentum, literally trying to print a textbook ”regular bullish divergence”
retail momentum declined. The pre-halving buyers have already bought, let me repeat they have already bought.

Skewness and kurtosis. If we look at the distribution of Bitcoin from the last 4 years, it’s skewed downwards. Volume ”traded at price” is developing downwards, forming a b-profile. ”Value” is trading lower.

P-profile in action

Retail liquidity is a tiny-drop in this vast ocean of liquidity. Big financial groups move the bitcoin markets. The problem for big-position traders is slippage. To solve the liquidity/slippage problem, institutions make use of stophunts and high-demand events to get their orders filled with minimal slippage.

When price is trading sideways, passive liquidity is collected in the form of market-stops. This is called a liquidity pool. Bitcoin is now forming a liquidity pool and the halving just happened to be a high-demand event. It’s just a Pump and Dump racket.

Bulls have a short memory, they forgot that 90% of the liquidations in 2019 came from ”long positions”


Alot of retail-investors that rely on income from work are being laid-off temporarily or permanently. Don’t expect a massive inflow of fiat into the bitcoin-market. Although Bitcoin is marketed as ”money” few online merchants actually accept it as legal tender. It’s practically useless as a payment-vehicle.

Categories
Altcoins scam

AltCoins Pump and Dump season is here

Alt-coin season? Yes, it seems like it, just don’t forget to take profit.

This is pretty common-knowledge but for these nibbas, who are new to crypto read this.

Bitcoin is range-bound, money will flow into alts. But make no mistake, the VC’s that have backed these Alts will take profit.

  • VC’s fund projects with potential, in return they receive tokens, equity or both usually with massive discount (whole-sale-prices)
  • Pump the prices to (retail-prices)
  • Pay for air-time on popular crypto-media-outlets, pay popular crypto-influencers to shill a project.
  • Take profit in the distribution area.

Forgot to mention. It’s Ba’al season.

Categories
Altcoins

Crypto Sectors

Crypto is a general term for the different sectors within the crypto-economy. Projects marked in yellow are emerging sectors with deep VC funding, would love to know whether these VC’s received tokens or equity. If anyone knows : greaterfoolzzz@protonmail.com

  • Money : Bitcoin
  • Privacy + Money : Monero
  • Ad-reward : Basic-Attention-token
  • Remittance : Stellar and Ripple
  • StableCoins : USDT , BUSD, Paxos, Gemini Dollar, USD coin
  • IOT internet of things : IOTA, IoTex, IOT-chain,
  • Lending : Salt, Akro, Cred, Populous, EthLend
  • Permanent Decentralized Storage : Arweave
  • Decentralized computing platforms : Dfinity
  • Decentralized Healthcare : Solve.care , lympo, CureCoin.
  • Decentralized Artificial Intelligence : Singularity, Fetch.AI
  • Decentralized Social Media : Kin, Po.et, U network
  • Decentralized Energy Platforms : PowerLedger, Wepower.
  • Blockchain as a service ”BAAS” : Ethereum, EOS, Nervos, HarmonyOne
Categories
Altcoins trading

BNB = bearish – buy opportunity

BNB-USDT

Sunday 14 June 2020 4:52 PM . Price-action for BNB-USDT is bearish. This is buy opportunity.

Common setup : Reserve 1-2% of your total capital for BNB to save on trading-fees. Reserve 4-5% of your total capital for hedging on a derative exchange. The rest of your capital can be used to trade the spot market.

Set buy-ladders (scaled orders, dollar-cost-average between) $14 – $9

Categories
Uncategorized

XRP price-action = dogshit

Bearish swing failure after swing failure. How is this dogshit token still top 4 on coinmarketcap?

Go figure, why weekly candle closes are so important.


Update 25 June

Retest of the green line is likely.


I might as well share this…. If you can read Japanese CandleStick formations and recognize the patterns and apply that knowledge on larger timeframes like weekly, monthly… you can forecast relatively large swings.

This is why weekly and monthly closes are so important. I only found 1 video covering this ”logic” There is only 1 video on youtube covering this logic… All the semi-pro traders know the importance of candle-closes. Monthly-Weekly Closes now you know too.

Categories
scam

Final shake-out 10K = TOP

First of all, don’t panic. This is all part of the greater shake-out. Read my post from 20 March. Big Boys are selling off. Bitcoin will be declared dead. Relax… hedge in cash. Accumulate for 2021. This pump was a supply-test. Big-funds wants your BTC at whole-sale prices. I’m betting that we will hit the $6xxx range, let’s see if I’m right. The data from santiment correlates with the data from Glassnode, scroll down and read the report.

https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-investors-exodus-from-major-exchanges-continues/

7 June Update

I wrote this blogpost on 1 June, 1 day before the massive $500 dump candle. How did I knew it would dump.

I will give you a hint, so you know I am not bullshitting you. I check historical trades over $100k on the spot market. Picture related. That is all I’m going to disclose. 100-200 BTC sell orderblocks at $10,080 and above. Which exchange, how to set the settings, which tool I am using… it’s up to you to figure it out.

edit – these sell-orders were realized, meaning they were executed. Not a spoof.

Categories
trading

Top 100 Ethereum holders selling off.

  • Price is rising (green-line)
  • The amount Ethereum held in the top 100 wallets has been steadily declining. (red line)
  • The amount of Ethereum moved from Top-Wallets to exchanges aligns with the price. As price increases, amount of Ethereum moved to exchanges increases. (purple line)
  • Vertical drop in Top 100 Ethereum holders (grey-line) Large percentage of the whales who previous held ETH have sold off.

You’ve been warned.