IMPORTANT ! Long-term Bearish Price-reasoning

I said on 1 June that 10K was the top. Few hours later (I was shorting it), Bitcoin topped at $10,400 and the next day on 2 June it wicked below $9300 and closed above $9500. ”Hurrdurr, you’re just guessing”

I don’t write articles after the facts. I forecast major swings on this blog. weeks, months before they happen.

  • The new S17 miners have lowered the break-even price significantly. Yes, supply issuance has been halved but energy-consumption has been significantly reduced.

Trying to figure out the fairest price for bitcoin. It’s around 6xxx.

  • realised-cap for BTC is $5783 by the time of this writing. The 4-year cyclical price for BTC is 200 MA weekly, which is around $6148, this number is dynamic… Moving averages tend to climb higher when price is trading in a range.
  • Realised cap = The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins. (source willy-woo)
  • The average 4-year moving average for BTC is around $6148. 200 SimpleMovingAverage – 200 weeks = 3.84 years the equivalent of 1 halving-cycle. The 200 MA is the dynamic mean of the last 200 weeks – approx 4 years. This support level has never been broken, price has wicked below the 200 MA weekly during fake-outs but price has never closed below 200 MA weekly with conviction.
  • The PointOfControl for the last 4 years is around $6600.

My target is still $6xxx

  • Momentum isn’t a constant, it’s a variable, demand is like high and low-tide, orderbook-liquidity is like the ocean. We saw a large-influx of retail normies, who were buying in anticipation before the halving event. The normies that anticipicated $12000 have already bought… let me repeat, they have already bought. Ask yourself this question.

  • The price-action you see right now, it’s just bait and flush….. lure normies into short positions, Market-makers that engineer liquidity for big-players , tend to counter-trade against the primary trend.
  • This is done by flushing/hunting stops. As a result ,this type of tactic cause a cascade of market-stops and liquidations that push liquidity upwards towards price-levels where (semi) professional traders have placed their iceberg/hidden orders.

The trend shows clear bearish bias, when it’s so obvious. It’s time to counter-trade against the crowd.

  • The price-action reveals all, higher-lows on declining momentum + declining on-balance-volume + linear trend line break. I pray that market sentiment remains bullish, so we can go down without a pump to rekt shorts. If market-sentiment switches to bearish, price will likely pump to take out shorts before bitcoin plummets.
As you can see, price is making higher low’s on declining momentum, literally trying to print a textbook ”regular bullish divergence”
retail momentum declined. The pre-halving buyers have already bought, let me repeat they have already bought.

Skewness and kurtosis. If we look at the distribution of Bitcoin from the last 4 years, it’s skewed downwards. Volume ”traded at price” is developing downwards, forming a b-profile. ”Value” is trading lower.

P-profile in action

Retail liquidity is a tiny-drop in this vast ocean of liquidity. Big financial groups move the bitcoin markets. The problem for big-position traders is slippage. To solve the liquidity/slippage problem, institutions make use of stophunts and high-demand events to get their orders filled with minimal slippage.

When price is trading sideways, passive liquidity is collected in the form of market-stops. This is called a liquidity pool. Bitcoin is now forming a liquidity pool and the halving just happened to be a high-demand event. It’s just a Pump and Dump racket.

Bulls have a short memory, they forgot that 90% of the liquidations in 2019 came from ”long positions”

Alot of retail-investors that rely on income from work are being laid-off temporarily or permanently. Don’t expect a massive inflow of fiat into the bitcoin-market. Although Bitcoin is marketed as ”money” few online merchants actually accept it as legal tender. It’s practically useless as a payment-vehicle.

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