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trading

Contrarian play for Nov-Dec 2020

Bitcoin SV-fork contrarian play.

Sheeps (80% of cryptoland) love to bash Craig Wright, fake satoshi, drunk aussie. I don’t care whether he is Satoshi or not. I don’t like his bragging either, but this aussie nibba has a point.

We both understand that true value comes from utility/consumption. If you want long-term sustainable growth you need businesses that actually consume your tokens (tokenized services). A regulation friendly bitcoin is absolutely necessary to attract businesses.

So I am willing to take a bet with Bitcoin SV.

Does that mean that I will invest in BSV? No, I will just positon/swing trade it.

Before 2017, crypto was a investment, nowadays not so much. The risk for non-traders far exceed the rewards. I don’t care if your projects has mooned 2500%, unrealized gains are imaginary gains. You can only realize profits by selling and buying. I warned you 21 december 2019 that Bitcoin won’t break 10k, while 90% of the fake-traders were bullish. 14 March all the phony-traders were bearish, Peter Brandt dinosaur-twitter-trader was predicting $1000, which is ridiculous. I was rather bullish.

The correction from the 2017 Bubble isn’t over till at least Christmas 2020. We will hit 8K soon but this will be rejected. What we see is regression downwards, this won’t change until at least end of Nov-December.

Back to BSV. Trading BSV-usdt requires 2 charts, BTC-USD and BSV-USDT the two charts are correlated. No alts can moon without btc leading the way.

BSV-USDT CHART

If we use 20 MA as a proxy for average value then look at this chart. That $450 wick probably penetrated 4-5 deviations from the 20 Weekly moving average (mean). Overvalued by $340 dollars. Average value around that period was $114. The 20 MA is a proxy for dynamic moving average of the last 20 weeks. To sustain $4xx, you need buyers that keep on buying at $4xx per coin.

The Bitcoin-SV fork was one of the best contrarian plays of 2019, don’t tell me you can’t run a train on these fools.

I don’t know where to buy in yet, depends on BTC-USD. Weekly looks like further downside to the outer devations. Since there are no Bitcoin SV deratives, we can’t short it. I will patiently wait for $100-$75

I will keep you updated and notify once I see some more structure.

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